MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP
The completed August 9-15 window has 47 verified MLB locks and 46 final grades: 26 hits and 20 misses. The one ungraded Cubs-Cardinals lock is excluded rather than backfilled or counted as a loss.
All 46 settled rows retain same-time regulation market snapshots. The model's Brier/log loss was 0.488/0.682 against the market's 0.494/0.687, but the model uses market context, so this narrow one-week comparison is not an independent edge claim.
Only 15 locks and 14 grades reached the append-only MLB ledger. Frozen official pick receipts support the score, while incomplete ledger reconciliation, no August 15 lock, and the unresolved grade remain explicit integrity limitations.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.