MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP
The completed August 2–8 window has 23 verified MLB locks but only 15 final grades: 7 hits and 8 misses. The eight ungraded locks are excluded rather than backfilled or counted as losses.
No settled pick has a retained locked market snapshot, so model versus market is invalid at n=0. The 15 settled picks have frozen source snapshots but none has reconciled into the append-only MLB ledger.
The scorecard reports three-outcome-form Brier (0.572), log loss (0.779), calibration, corrections, and the stale-data limitation without claiming improvement from accuracy.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.