MATCHDAY RESEARCH
A model's probabilities are only useful if they mean what they say — a pick made at 70% confidence should win close to 70% of the time, not 90% or 50%. This checks Matchday's College Football picks against that bar, computed from the complete verified College Football pick log (19 graded, pregame-locked picks as of 2026-09-24), not a cherry-picked subset.
When Matchday said 50-60%, the pick actually won 0% of the time (0/1).
When Matchday said 60-70%, the pick actually won 50% of the time (1/2).
When Matchday said 70-80%, the pick actually won 100% of the time (5/5).
When Matchday said 80-90%, the pick actually won 80% of the time (4/5).
When Matchday said 90+%, the pick actually won 100% of the time (6/6).
Sample size note: 19 graded picks is small — any single band can easily be off by 10-15 points from noise alone. This is an early read, not a settled result, and will be revisited as the verified sample grows. See the in-app Scorecard for the always-current version of this same table.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.