MATCHDAY RESEARCH
A model's probabilities are only useful if they mean what they say — a pick made at 70% confidence should win close to 70% of the time, not 90% or 50%. This checks Matchday's MLB picks against that bar, computed from the complete verified MLB pick log (82 graded, pregame-locked picks as of 2026-08-02), not a cherry-picked subset.
When Matchday said 50-60%, the pick actually won 54% of the time (13/24).
When Matchday said 60-70%, the pick actually won 52% of the time (12/23).
When Matchday said 70-80%, the pick actually won 62% of the time (16/26).
When Matchday said 80-90%, the pick actually won 56% of the time (5/9).
Sample size note: 82 graded picks is small — any single band can easily be off by 10-15 points from noise alone. This is an early read, not a settled result, and will be revisited as the verified sample grows. See the in-app Scorecard for the always-current version of this same table.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.