MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP
Matchday's model graded 19 College Football picks this stretch, hitting on 16 of them (84%). Over the same 18 games with a market line, the betting market favorite hit 89% of the time.
On calibration: picks stated at 70-80% hit 100% of the time (5 games); picks stated at 80-90% hit 80% of the time (5 games); picks stated at 90+% hit 100% of the time (6 games). A well-calibrated model's stated confidence should roughly match its actual hit rate in each band.
The strongest signal lately has been talent or squad quality: when it favored a side, that side won 89% of the time (18 games).
This is Matchday's own model reporting on itself for anyone to use. Every pick is locked before kickoff and graded automatically once the game finishes; none are rewritten after the fact. See the Q&A page for how the model works.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.