MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP
Matchday's model graded 97 MLB picks this stretch, hitting on 53 of them (55%). Over the same 37 games with a market line, the betting market favorite hit 70% of the time.
On calibration: picks stated at 50-60% hit 53% of the time (30 games); picks stated at 60-70% hit 50% of the time (26 games); picks stated at 70-80% hit 61% of the time (31 games); picks stated at 80-90% hit 50% of the time (10 games). A well-calibrated model's stated confidence should roughly match its actual hit rate in each band.
The strongest signal lately has been season record: when it favored a side, that side won 62% of the time (47 games).
Among this week's MLB storylines: the biggest upset was Boston Red Sox winning 4-9 against Los Angeles Dodgers (the market gave that result only about 0%); the model's best call was Miami Marlins in Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies at 51% confidence; its biggest miss was picking Milwaukee Brewers in Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers, but Los Angeles Angels won instead.
This is Matchday's own model reporting on itself — not betting advice. Every pick is locked before kickoff and graded automatically once the game finishes; none are rewritten after the fact. See the Q&A page for how the model works.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.