MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP
Matchday's model graded 62 MLB picks this stretch, hitting on 34 of them (55%).
On calibration: picks stated at 45-55% hit 56% of the time (9 games); picks stated at 55-65% hit 56% of the time (18 games); picks stated at 65+% hit 54% of the time (35 games). A well-calibrated model's stated confidence should roughly match its actual hit rate in each band.
The strongest signal lately has been season record: when it favored a side, that side won 65% of the time (31 games).
Among this week's MLB storylines: the biggest upset was Toronto Blue Jays winning 3-1 against St. Louis Cardinals (the market gave that result only about 0%); the model's best call was San Francisco Giants in San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels at 79% confidence; its biggest miss was picking Boston Red Sox in Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox, but Oakland Athletics won instead.
This is Matchday's own model reporting on itself — not betting advice. Every pick is locked before kickoff and graded automatically once the game finishes; none are rewritten after the fact. See the Q&A page for how the model works.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.