MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP
Matchday's model graded 33 MLB picks this stretch, hitting on 17 of them (52%).
On calibration: picks stated at 45-55% hit 60% of the time (5 games); picks stated at 55-65% hit 50% of the time (8 games); picks stated at 65+% hit 50% of the time (20 games). A well-calibrated model's stated confidence should roughly match its actual hit rate in each band.
The strongest signal lately has been season record: when it favored a side, that side won 53% of the time (15 games). Opponent-adjusted rating has been the weakest, at 44% (16 games) — a reminder no single factor is decisive on its own.
Among this week's MLB storylines: the biggest upset was Washington Nationals winning 5-3 against Arizona Diamondbacks (the market gave that result only about 0%); the model's best call was Chicago White Sox in Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox at 52% confidence; its biggest miss was picking Milwaukee Brewers in Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies, but Colorado Rockies won instead.
This is Matchday's own model reporting on itself — not betting advice. Every pick is locked before kickoff and graded automatically once the game finishes; none are rewritten after the fact. See the Q&A page for how the model works.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.