MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP
Matchday's model graded 6 MLB picks this stretch, hitting on 3 of them (50%).
On calibration: picks stated at 65+% hit 0% of the time (3 games). A well-calibrated model's stated confidence should roughly match its actual hit rate in each band.
Among this week's MLB storylines: the biggest upset was Cleveland Guardians winning 5-2 against Minnesota Twins (the market gave that result only about 0%); the model's best call was Los Angeles Dodgers in Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers at 71% confidence; its biggest miss was picking Milwaukee Brewers in Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies, but Colorado Rockies won instead.
This is Matchday's own model reporting on itself — not betting advice. Every pick is locked before kickoff and graded automatically once the game finishes; none are rewritten after the fact. See the Q&A page for how the model works.
Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.