MATCHDAY MODEL RECAP

Friday Model vs. Market: The Rejection Ledger

2026-08-07Model vs. MarketAuto-generated

Friday's quality gate found zero qualifying non-MLB model-versus-market comparisons. No model probability, no-vig market probability, or gap is printed without aligned fixture identity, timing, and documented market coverage.

The next Premier League fixture is Arsenal FC v Coventry City FC on August 21, but its export has no market to compare against. Cached Ligue 1 and Bundesliga files are from July 20; the latest cached NFL snapshot is July 17; college football has no match-level odds cache.

Model factors such as rating, form, home advantage, schedule context, and competition adjustments remain context rather than proof. Some inputs are correlated, and no stale price or undocumented book count is treated as a consensus market.

Use the information your way. Matchday publishes probabilities, market context, and a public track record. See the Q&A page for how predictions are built and the data sources and legal notice.

Matchday — pregame predictions, market context and postgame grading.